Lies, Damn Lies, Statistics and Polls

Yes, Polls; they are switching back and forth like an out of whack seismograph needle during the big one.  This could be the big one.  It's big, all right, and it's got more than its share of lies.  The wacky thing is some people seem to be believing them.  Romney understands this phenomenon - the Big Lie.  The Big Lie Told Often.  So he keeps right on spinning.  General Motors is moving to China.  No matter GM says it's not true. It scares people. So the needle swings. Yesterday - Obama up int he polls - today it's a statistical dead heat.

And who can forget those heady days of yore when Obama enjoyed a seemingly unbeatable lead? Before the first debate, when he deflated into the "flat Obama" that was seen gracing County fairs across the country throughout the summer.

Polls that are close as the ones we see today are all within the margin of error.  It's anyone's race at this time.  Can Romney keep on lying and reap the rewards?  Or will the public catch on.  Wait. GM is staying put. Wait, Romney was a believer in climate change before he wasn't.  Wait, wasn't it Romney who invented Obamacare (nee Romneycare) in Massachusetts while he was governor?  Why is he throwing his own ideas under the bus?

Bus, bus? I don't see a bus.  The big question is who will the bus run over? who will it carry on to a victory tour?

Not even the polls know for sure.  And we haven't even started down the long dark road to voter suppression.

Poltiical Mythology or Republican Spin?

In today's Chronicle column, entitled "Overly obstructed - deconstructed" in the print version and "The mythology of Obama's obstacles"in the SFGate version, Republican columnist Debra Saunders tries to spin the details of when and to whom Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell said that the "single most important thing we want to achieve is for President Obama to be a one-term president," into a Democrat-destroying myth.  They got the time and place wrong, rants Saunders.  But did they misquote?  No. Did they take it out of context?  No.  He said it when it appeared the Republicans were on the verge of  mid-term gains.  He said it to an interviewer from the National Journal .  He never denies saying it or meaning it. 

And furthermore, that's not all he said. In explaining his comments in a speech after the 2010 election, he said the only way to achieve the Republican goals to "repeal and replace the health spending bill; to end the bailouts; cut spending; and shrink the size and scope of government, the only way to do all these things it is to put someone in the White House who won’t veto any of these things. We can hope the President will start listening to the electorate after Tuesday’s election. But we can’t plan on it. And it would be foolish to expect that Republicans will be able to completely reverse the damage Democrats have done as long as a Democrat holds the veto pen."

So, after criticizing Obama's programs ("damage Democrats have done"), and then because his new Congress will will not be able to "completely reverse" this damage, he needs a president who will not veto their programs.  (Read the Glenn Kessler Washington Post "Fact Checker" article about who said what when here.)

So he said it; he meant it, and he reiterated it. It's a fact.  It doesn't have wings, a horn in the middle of its head or live in a lake in Scotland. By focusing on the when and where rather than the what and why, Saunders is the one obstructing the truth, that the Republicans, led by McConnell and John Boehner, have made it their no. one priority to obstruct, deflect and prevent passage of any legislation Obama and the Democrats put forward, whether in the past they would have agreed with it or not.     Like waivers in the welfare program their own governors asked for. And jobs for veterans.

But I guess in Republican-World, spin is everything. That's why Obama is looking good for a second term and Democratic chances for Congress are rosy. As long as we are talking myth and superstition, fingers crossed that it all doesn't get derailed by the very real voter suppression efforts now underway by Republicans in swing states.

Here's a quote for Ms. Saunders to ponder: Pennsylvania House Majority Leader Mike Turzai:"Voter ID, which is gonna allow Governor Romney to win the state of Pennsylvania, done.” Let's see how she spins that one.

Top 10 Reasons Romney Won't Release his Tax Returns

10. He's really, really modest about all those charities he donates to that help the poor children of liberals

9. He's paid more than the 13.9% he disclosed and doesn't want to look bad to his Bain buddies

8. He gave away all his money to the Church and is living off horse show proceeds only.

7. His evil twin hacked into all his accounts and made off with the dough to a secret hideaway in the South of France

6. A ten year old computer whiz named Otto living in New Jersey hacked into all his accounts and diverted them to funding his college education at Reed.

5. He gambled them all away in Vegas while on a mission for the Church to save the heathens on the Strip.

4. He used the money to bribe the Olympic judges into giving his wife's horse a better score then it deserved.

3. He joined with Michael Vick in funding animal rights organizations.

2. He pushed the wrong button on the Obama site and accidentally sent all his money to Obama's re-election campaign instead of telling him to burn in hell.

1. He pushed the wrong button on the Palestine Liberation Organization site and donated all his money to funding a statue of Arafat to be erected in Jerusalem instead of telling them to burn in hell.

2008 in Review

Yes, we did!


Yes, we did. Tomorrow is Inauguration Day. I'll be dressed in my finest in San Rafael dancing to oldies and watching Obama boogie on the big screen.


This year Green Dog Campaigns had a most interesting race in Sonoma County. Shirlee Zane, newcomer to electoral politics, faced off against Sharon Wright, veteran campaigner. Shirlee was backed by labor and environmentalists and social service types. Sharon had big business and developers.


Guess who had the most money and endorsements?


Guess who ran the best campaign and won?

Yes, we did! Shirlee proved to be an ace campaigner. She came in first in the primary, with three others. Sharon was next. Into a hotly contested general, complete with nasty campaign attacks from Sharon and her developer cronies. They spent a wad trying to defeat Shirlee's fast moving train.

Heavy use of i.e.'s in a local campaign


Labor put money behind Shirlee in numerous independent expenditure (ie) pieces, both positive and negative. More than I've ever seen in a local race. These guys are playing on a whole new ballfield.

Sharon' developer funded negative hits came fast furious the last week, including a TV ad. But this time, dirty campaigning failed. The unions were always tasteful and truthful in their negative pieces against Sharon. The developers were not, calling Shirlee a puppet of the unions.


Shirlee used up a lot of shoe leather, walking and knocking on door throughout the large district. Her volunteers were all troopers. On Election Night, she was the victor by 11%! A stunning win.


New strategic partners and an award nomination for Green Dogs


Green Dogs put our all into this race, with lots of targeted mailing; the graphic talents of Lise Stampfli outshone the competition. We even did polling, adding Target Research as a strategic partner. And the dulcet tones of Peter B. Collins on our radio ad didn't hurt either.


That ad, written and produced by Peter, is up for a Reed Award. we are so proud, of Shirlee, of our new strategic partners and of this time in America.


Green Dogs looks forward to a new era, a great 2009 and some fun campaigns in the years ahead. Check our site http://www.greendogcampaigns.com/ for more examples of winning campaigns.