Lies, Damn Lies, Statistics and Polls

Yes, Polls; they are switching back and forth like an out of whack seismograph needle during the big one.  This could be the big one.  It's big, all right, and it's got more than its share of lies.  The wacky thing is some people seem to be believing them.  Romney understands this phenomenon - the Big Lie.  The Big Lie Told Often.  So he keeps right on spinning.  General Motors is moving to China.  No matter GM says it's not true. It scares people. So the needle swings. Yesterday - Obama up int he polls - today it's a statistical dead heat.

And who can forget those heady days of yore when Obama enjoyed a seemingly unbeatable lead? Before the first debate, when he deflated into the "flat Obama" that was seen gracing County fairs across the country throughout the summer.

Polls that are close as the ones we see today are all within the margin of error.  It's anyone's race at this time.  Can Romney keep on lying and reap the rewards?  Or will the public catch on.  Wait. GM is staying put. Wait, Romney was a believer in climate change before he wasn't.  Wait, wasn't it Romney who invented Obamacare (nee Romneycare) in Massachusetts while he was governor?  Why is he throwing his own ideas under the bus?

Bus, bus? I don't see a bus.  The big question is who will the bus run over? who will it carry on to a victory tour?

Not even the polls know for sure.  And we haven't even started down the long dark road to voter suppression.

Poltiical Mythology or Republican Spin?

In today's Chronicle column, entitled "Overly obstructed - deconstructed" in the print version and "The mythology of Obama's obstacles"in the SFGate version, Republican columnist Debra Saunders tries to spin the details of when and to whom Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell said that the "single most important thing we want to achieve is for President Obama to be a one-term president," into a Democrat-destroying myth.  They got the time and place wrong, rants Saunders.  But did they misquote?  No. Did they take it out of context?  No.  He said it when it appeared the Republicans were on the verge of  mid-term gains.  He said it to an interviewer from the National Journal .  He never denies saying it or meaning it. 

And furthermore, that's not all he said. In explaining his comments in a speech after the 2010 election, he said the only way to achieve the Republican goals to "repeal and replace the health spending bill; to end the bailouts; cut spending; and shrink the size and scope of government, the only way to do all these things it is to put someone in the White House who won’t veto any of these things. We can hope the President will start listening to the electorate after Tuesday’s election. But we can’t plan on it. And it would be foolish to expect that Republicans will be able to completely reverse the damage Democrats have done as long as a Democrat holds the veto pen."

So, after criticizing Obama's programs ("damage Democrats have done"), and then because his new Congress will will not be able to "completely reverse" this damage, he needs a president who will not veto their programs.  (Read the Glenn Kessler Washington Post "Fact Checker" article about who said what when here.)

So he said it; he meant it, and he reiterated it. It's a fact.  It doesn't have wings, a horn in the middle of its head or live in a lake in Scotland. By focusing on the when and where rather than the what and why, Saunders is the one obstructing the truth, that the Republicans, led by McConnell and John Boehner, have made it their no. one priority to obstruct, deflect and prevent passage of any legislation Obama and the Democrats put forward, whether in the past they would have agreed with it or not.     Like waivers in the welfare program their own governors asked for. And jobs for veterans.

But I guess in Republican-World, spin is everything. That's why Obama is looking good for a second term and Democratic chances for Congress are rosy. As long as we are talking myth and superstition, fingers crossed that it all doesn't get derailed by the very real voter suppression efforts now underway by Republicans in swing states.

Here's a quote for Ms. Saunders to ponder: Pennsylvania House Majority Leader Mike Turzai:"Voter ID, which is gonna allow Governor Romney to win the state of Pennsylvania, done.” Let's see how she spins that one.

Debra Debra Debra - Come back to Earth!

I cringe to think what Debra Saunders, the so-called "token" Republican of the San Francisco Chronicle will do to Clinton's speech and then to Obama's, considering the mash up she made of Michelle's.  In a weirdly constructed column, Saunders entitled:  First lady: You, too, can be Mitt Romney, today, she takes the Obamas to task for having received student loans, as described in Michelle Obama's stirring speech at the Democratic Convention on Tuesday.


This is the weird part. I had to read these three short paragraphs several times and I must say I am stumped . Maybe you can hep me understand what this all means if anything, to Ms. Saunders:
 
     "As I listened the first lady talk about what her family did to make sure she got a first-class education and how she and her husband struggled to pay off their hefty student loans, I couldn't help but think that Barack and Michelle Obama would not be the fine people they are today if they hadn't had to stretch themselves to get ahead.

     "So why do they seem to think the government should hand out more taxpayer-backed grants and loans to today's college and graduate students? If someone else had handed their college and law-school educations to the Obamas, they'd be Mitt Romney.

    "Yet they bash Romney for not having to work as hard as they had to in order to get where they are today."

Ok, let's parse those sentences. First she says Michelle and Barack are fine people because of the struggles they had to get ahead.  So far so good.  Then she asks why they think government should help other people get ahead.  Huh?   What does this mean?  Others should not get what they got?  Which is really not "getting" anything, but the opportunity to got to college and then work hard to pay back the loans that paid for their education.  Is this what she's saying.

And then, say what? These hard working people who want others to have the same opportunities they did bash Willard Mitt Romney because he had to "work as hard as they had to in order to be where they are today?"

Did the editor leave out a crucial sentence?  Is Debra really saying that Romney a) had to work hard and b) is now where the Obamas are today? 

I don't get it.  Romney came from wealth.  When he went to college he lived in a basement and ate spaghetti with the lovely Ann through choice, not circumstances.  And poor Ann just never could never understood why he did that.  Something about the Mormon missionary experience he had to get out of his system I guess.  Did he take out student loans? Maybe, I don't think so.  (and so what?) Is he now where the Obamas are today?  Not by a long shot. He's on Jupiter and they are simply living on Planet Earth. And this is meant by way of analogy, not to slam Mr. Romney for being out of touch with the home planet (even though he is.) 

(For those who don't like to interrupt their reading to click through to arcane internet sites, and to paraphrase Bill Clinton, here's the score: Romney $250 million; Obamas not quite $6 million. No, it's not chump change, but Barack Obama didn't have a rich daddy who gave him his first stock options or who bought him a home when he got tired of the "dump" he lived in in college.)

I guess Saunders is drinking whatever they've been pouring over in Romney world. Because she finishes up her column with the wholly unsubstantiated statement that "More student aid leads to higher tuition; higher tuition leads to record college debt." 

Not that I don't think some unscrupulous college chancellors in both public and private schools wouldn't jump at any excuse to bloat their own salaries as we have seen all too often in our own UC system, but come on.  If that's the case, don't punish the students, change the system.   Does Saunders really believe people shouldn't get student loans?  Does she really believe Mitt had to work as hard as the Obamas ever in his life?

Earth to Debra, come on back down here and let's get you some help.  Seriously, making her write this column every single day of the Convention might just be too much to ask of a nice San Francisco Republican.

 

Invisible Antics at the Democratic National Convention

Watching the Republican Convention last week, when Clint Eastwood chatted with an empty chair supposedly occupied by an invisible Obama (by the way, little did he know that Obama really was in that chair, wearing his Superhero cloak of invisibility and taking it all very well!), I got to thinking how the Democrats can use the same trick in Charlotte. It was a show stopper you have to admit.

Here are a few ideas for how using a chair as a prop can boost ratings and poll numbers for Obama:

• 1.       Stephen Colbert interviews invisible Romney, asking him to explain his varying positions on women’s right to choose, health care, social security and other social issues from when he was Governor. Of course, you’d need two chairs for that, one on each side of the stage, and you’d probably need an invisible traffic cop to keep the two invisible Romneys from attacking each other.

• 2.       Obama interviews a copy of the Romney health care plan propped up in a chair, while an invisible page turner points to the pertinent topics where the two plans are identical.

• 3.       A whole line up of Massachusetts women, senior citizens, moms with babies and workers stand up very visibly on stage and thank Romney for his health care plan and give brief anecdotes on how it helped them in their times of need. Not nearly so witty as the empty chair routine maybe, but I hear Convention crowds go wild for real people.

• 4.       Invisible Paul Ryan dodges and weaves an invisible Todd Akin as he tells people his own plan for limiting abortion and protecting Medicare.  Real senior citizens can pelt him with mock vouchers from the wings.

Romney was so proud of his own Romney Care in Massachusetts, he featured it in his official portrait.

Not exactly as they say on Wait,Wait Don’t Tell Me, if any of these things happen at the Democratic Convention, we’ll be in for a rip roaring good show. 

Pundit Pie - Political Food for the Soul

Romney and Bain Capital: Was he or wasn’t he? (reprinted from http://punditpie.blogspot.com/ )

The Romney/Bain Capital scandal is a delicious soap opera, getting more juicy by the day.  Now we learn that not only were they busily outsourcing jobs, during the period Romney claimed not to be involved, but they invested in an aborted fetus dumping company, which the right wing anti-choice crowd compares to the Nazis.  The contentious issue is whether he, as chairman of the board, CEO and owner, listed on the SEC filings as late as 2002, after claiming to have left control in 1999, to go to the Olympics (No, he wasn’t in the competitive hair-gel category), was actually responsible for these decisions, or at least had knowledge of them.

The consensus seems to be, ”Duh, well of course!”  At least among the Democratic pundits.  Romney’s own camp says, well, he was much too busy pulling the Olympics’ fat out of the fire to be concerned with the day to day trivialities of his own company.  

If a recent down ticket race in California is any indicator, the Democratic consensus will win out in the mind of the electorate, anyway.

Stacey Lawson and the California Second Congressional District Race:

In this race, neophyte wannabe Stacey Lawson touted her credentials as a “job creator,”  claiming she was the only one who had created hundreds, thousands, or maybe 50 (depending on what day it was) jobs in various start-ups she worked with.  She was maddeningly vague about her roles and it became clear that she was exaggerating her importance to any jobs created, at the least. 

Soon enough, information surfaced about one of her more recent start-ups, of which she was actually held the title of Chair of the Board. (or to use a food analogy, Head Chef.) This company, Chelsey Henry, had failed to remit its payroll taxes, collected from employees for a number of quarters, to the government, both State (Washington) and Federal.  Additionally, it was learned that the business outsourced its product production (high end women’s handbags) to China. 

This information emerged in a key debate and was quickly picked up by major news outlets in the District, as well as an anonymous website entitled “Who is Stacey Lawson?”   (Which itself sparked a mouth-watering buzz in the blogosphere.)  Ms. Lawson compounded her culpability by making several contradictory and misleading statements about her relationship with the company.  First she claimed it filed bankruptcy after the discrepancies were discovered.  Later she had to correct herself when confronted with the fact that the company was actually taken over by one of its many creditors. 

Then she claimed she and the other board members “rectified” the errors in reporting once they learned of it. (They did not and sums owed were still outstanding when the company was acquired by the creditor).  She showed a remarkable lack of understanding of the role of Chair of a corporate board, and these failings, along with a dismal voting history,  led to her being seen as a less than credible candidate. Instead of being the runner up in California’s first open-primary, which would have pitted  two Democrats against each other,  she finished a weak fourth, despite an incredible war chest filled by investment bankers and venture capitalists.

A Lesson for Democrats in the Presidential Election:

Even though her role with Chelsey Henry was not as great as that of Romney in Bain, the lessons are the same.  As Chair, it was her responsibility to know what was happening with the company.  Romney, as Chief Cook and Bottle Washer and sole shareholder of Bain, is even more culpable for these shortcomings.  His claims to have kept out of the kitchen when the sausage was being made will not play well with the electorate, so long as the story stays alive. That should be the Democrats number one job between now and the election.  Keep the Bain Capital story in the press and in the minds of the voters.   

Maybe in the heady world of venture capital and money management, it’s no big deal, but to the average American, who has to watch every penny, every transaction, and every loaf of bread, it’s  majorly huge.  Or it should be  If a business man claims his way of doing business is good for the country, make darned sure you know what his way is.  Pink Slime in a béarnaise sauce is still just as bad for you.

What are the Repubs smoking?

Watching debates, hearing the spin, seeing the Repub Presidential candidates' heads go whirling madly on their necks like latter day Exorcist (the movie) stars, I have to say President Obama is looking better and better. His jobs program, not enough, no, but better. His health care plan, not enough but way better; his few testy moments, when he snarks back at the loonies to his right, really good

Keep it up. Keep them spinning. Get bold and bolder. We want you to succeed. We want to love you. We want to want to walk our asses off for you.

So Go, Obama, Go. Run, Obama, Run. Slam those Repubs. in the wallet, in the gut, in they tiny little brains. Make 'em weep. make the American people proud. Don't give in to fear. cuz that just leads to, you know, more fear, and then all that fear adds up to some powerful bad mojo.

Keep Hope alive. Corny as it is. Even if you lose on all fronts, keeping Hope alive, will keep us all on our feet and fighting another day.

Dick Cheney Father of Octuplets

In a surprising revelation today, former VP, Dick "the terrorists are coming" Cheney told shocked news reporters that he is the father of Nadya Suleman's octuplets.

"How else do you think she got eight babies when only six were implanted," growled the proud Papa. "and you thought Dick Cheney was through."

He continued, "We need all the resources we can muster in the country to fight the terrorists, coming to murder us in our beds. Obama won't do it, in fact he's out there passing around condemns to the poor, so I have decided to grow my own domestic army, starting with these little sweeties. I call them my "Battling Babies."

"Of course, most American women are too busy getting manicures and having their feet waxed to breed for America, but I'm pleased to report that another seven are on their way. The mom is in a secure, undisclosed location as we speak."

While reporters struggle to find the words for the many questions swirling through their scrambled brains, Cheney muttered something under his breath, and, in a puff of sulfurous smoke, disappeared.

Veteran White House correspondent Helen Thomas was heard to exclaim, "Damn, I was afraid of something like that," as she joined the throng out the door of the now smoldering press tent.

Published at sfgate.com